China's steel exports fell for the first time afte

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China's steel exports fell for the first time after six years of continuous growth. The superposition of dual factors of internal happiness and external worries led to the first decline in China's steel exports since 2009

on January 13, the General Administration of Customs released statistical data. In 2016, China's total steel export was 108million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and the total export was 358.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%

according to statistics, since 2009 after the financial crisis, China's steel exports have climbed from 25 million tons to the historical peak of 112 million tons last year. After six consecutive years of growth, it began to turn downward last year

the sluggish global economic growth not only led to weak demand for steel, but also aroused stronger trade protectionism. This is considered to be the main reason for the decline in China's steel exports

"the period of low economic growth is often the period of high incidence of trade frictions." According to insiders, China is not only the world's largest steel producer and consumer, but also the largest exporter, which can produce transportation plates used in aerospace and other fields, accounting for 25% of the world's total steel exports. It can be predicted that if China should choose the appropriate gate size and continue to expand its market share, it will face greater international trade friction resistance

according to the statistics of China trade remedy information case database of the Ministry of Commerce, there were 114 trade remedy cases involving China initiated by various countries (regions) in 2016, half of which were in the steel industry, up to 52 cases, an increase of 15 cases over 2015

the improvement of domestic environment has further weakened the export enthusiasm of Chinese steel producers

last year, the Chinese government mainly promoted supply side structural reform, and intensively introduced policies to reduce production capacity and stabilize growth. In addition, the increase of production suspension and restriction caused by environmental factors has improved the domestic steel supply and demand, and the steel price has risen sharply

according to the monitoring data, as of december30,2016, the national steel comprehensive price index of Lange Iron and steel increased by 70.1% year-on-year

"the domestic price is higher than the export price, so the export power of domestic steel mills decreases." Industry insiders say so

2017, China's iron and steel capacity reduction continued to advance, and the steel output may further decline. Many insiders believe that China's steel exports will continue to decline this year, and it may be difficult to exceed 100 million tons in the short term

the global economic growth power is insufficient, and it is difficult to increase the demand for steel. Southeast Asian countries, the main export regions of China, are accelerating their own steel industry development. Especially with the rise of prices, some production capacity has been restarted, and the import demand will decline

"with the rise of export prices, China's steel export price advantage is no longer as obvious as that of 2014-2015." According to insiders, the negative effects of increasing trade frictions have gradually emerged since 2014. It is expected that exports will drop to 96million tons in 2017

some people believe that although China's steel products are still very competitive in the international market in terms of variety, supply capacity, cost and quality in the medium and long term, there is great uncertainty about whether the external trade friction resistance will further increase and whether Trump's 337 survey on China will further ferment after he takes office

China's steel export policy may also be adjusted, including the export tax rebate policy for alloy steel. Xuxiangchun also expressed his view that the export tax rebate for some kinds of alloy steel may be cancelled. If adjusted, it will have a great impact on the export varieties and quantities

wangguoqing, director of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, believes that China's steel exports may still reach 100 million tons in 2017

"may be flat or slightly lower." Industry insiders said that in 2017, the International Steel Association predicted that the global steel demand was still growing, and the promotion of the "the Belt and Road" and the reduction of China's export tax rate on billets and other products were good for steel exports. In addition, the decline of RMB exchange rate also provides a favorable competitive advantage for steel exports

while the export volume declined, China's steel import volume increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 13.21 million tons last year. Among them, the demand for high-end plates is increasing

at present, the General Administration of Customs has only released the breakdown data of the first November of last year. Among them, the imported plate products account for more than 80% of the total import volume. The mutual friction and grazing of plates during high-end rotation is still the focus of China's steel import

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